Modelo vs mercado

Odds Comparison

Probabilidades e Fair Odds do modelo frente aos preços de mercado (Betano PT, bwin e média de mercado), jogo a jogo — 26 jogos com odds de mercado.

Betano PT + bwin · OddsPapi v4 · recolhidas em 10 Set 2026 13:15 UTC

Probabilidade do modelo Probabilidade do mercado (normalizada)

Prob. Mercado = 1/odd, normalizada pelo overround quando o mercado está completo. EV técnico = p × odd − 1 (valor analítico).

Premier League (E0)

0 jogos com odds
Sem dados de mercado disponíveis — volta mais perto dos jogos ou quando a coleta publicar odds.

Championship (E1)

12 jogos com odds · recolhidas 13:15 UTC
West HamvsWrexham
11 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa66.5%61.9%1.501.621.611.61+4.6pp+7.4%
Empate16.4%23.7%6.094.104.334.21-7.3pp-30.8%
Fora17.1%19.4%5.865.305.005.15-2.3pp-12.0%
ou25
Over 2.580.5%61.2%1.241.651.621.64+19.4pp+31.6%
Under 2.519.5%45.8%5.132.272.102.19-26.3pp-57.4%
btts
Ambas marcam70.9%59.7%1.411.651.701.68+11.2pp+18.8%
BoltonvsCardiff
12 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa29.7%39.8%3.372.572.452.51-10.2pp-25.6%
Empate27.6%27.4%3.633.603.703.65+0.2pp+0.6%
Fora42.8%38.5%2.342.602.602.60+4.3pp+11.2%
ou25
Over 2.550.3%62.5%1.991.621.581.60-12.2pp-19.5%
Under 2.549.7%44.4%2.012.302.202.25+5.2pp+11.8%
btts
Ambas marcam47.6%66.5%2.101.501.511.50-18.9pp-28.4%
DerbyvsBirmingham
12 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa12.0%29.4%8.323.403.403.40-17.4pp-59.1%
Empate24.6%30.3%4.073.353.253.30-5.8pp-19.0%
Fora63.4%45.7%1.582.182.202.19+17.8pp+38.9%
ou25
Over 2.550.4%48.5%1.982.072.052.06+1.9pp+3.9%
Under 2.549.5%58.3%2.021.751.681.72-8.8pp-15.0%
btts
Ambas marcam32.4%55.6%3.081.821.781.80-23.1pp-41.6%
West BromvsQPR
12 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa67.2%47.1%1.492.152.102.12+20.1pp+42.8%
Empate19.0%29.8%5.273.303.403.35-10.9pp-36.4%
Fora13.8%28.4%7.233.553.503.52-14.5pp-51.2%
ou25
Over 2.560.9%56.0%1.641.801.771.78+4.9pp+8.7%
Under 2.539.1%51.0%2.562.021.901.96-11.9pp-23.4%
btts
Ambas marcam51.9%61.5%1.931.601.651.62-9.6pp-15.7%
BlackburnvsMillwall
12 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa31.0%35.1%3.232.822.872.85-4.2pp-11.9%
Empate21.7%29.8%4.613.303.403.35-8.2pp-27.4%
Fora47.3%40.4%2.112.552.402.48+7.0pp+17.2%
ou25
Over 2.574.5%54.4%1.341.881.801.84+20.1pp+37.0%
Under 2.525.5%52.5%3.921.931.881.91-27.0pp-51.4%
btts
Ambas marcam68.3%60.6%1.461.651.651.65+7.7pp+12.7%
CharltonvsPortsmouth
12 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa63.1%36.2%1.582.772.752.76+26.9pp+74.3%
Empate24.7%31.5%4.053.153.203.17-6.8pp-21.6%
Fora12.2%38.0%8.222.672.602.63-25.8pp-67.9%
ou25
Over 2.536.8%46.5%2.722.202.102.15-9.7pp-20.9%
Under 2.563.2%60.6%1.581.671.631.65+2.6pp+4.3%
btts
Ambas marcam32.5%54.8%3.081.851.801.82-22.3pp-40.7%
MiddlesbroughvsNorwich
12 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa65.0%53.5%1.541.871.871.87+11.5pp+21.5%
Empate20.8%25.8%4.813.953.803.88-5.0pp-19.5%
Fora14.2%25.8%7.023.853.903.88-11.6pp-44.8%
ou25
Over 2.554.0%64.7%1.851.571.521.54-10.7pp-16.5%
Under 2.546.0%41.9%2.182.422.352.38+4.0pp+9.6%
btts
Ambas marcam47.0%66.2%2.131.521.501.51-19.2pp-29.0%
PrestonvsLincoln
12 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa21.3%43.0%4.702.352.302.33-21.7pp-50.5%
Empate22.7%28.4%4.413.453.603.52-5.7pp-20.1%
Fora56.0%33.6%1.783.002.952.98+22.4pp+66.7%
ou25
Over 2.564.7%54.8%1.551.881.771.82+9.9pp+18.1%
Under 2.535.3%51.8%2.831.931.931.93-16.5pp-31.9%
btts
Ambas marcam54.7%59.7%1.831.701.651.68-5.0pp-8.3%
SouthamptonvsBristol City
12 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa94.0%58.8%1.061.701.701.70+35.2pp+59.9%
Empate3.3%25.0%30.084.004.004.00-21.7pp-86.7%
Fora2.6%21.6%38.014.754.504.62-19.0pp-87.8%
ou25
Over 2.599.2%62.7%1.011.621.571.59+36.5pp+58.2%
Under 2.50.8%43.8%119.002.322.252.29-42.9pp-98.1%
btts
Ambas marcam85.4%62.9%1.171.601.581.59+22.5pp+35.8%
SwanseavsBurnley
12 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa40.8%45.2%2.452.222.202.21-4.4pp-9.8%
Empate59.2%29.0%1.693.403.503.45+30.2pp+104.2%
Fora0.0%31.5%3.253.103.17-31.5pp-100.0%
ou25
Over 2.51.6%54.4%61.271.881.801.84-52.7pp-97.0%
Under 2.598.4%52.5%1.021.931.881.91+45.9pp+87.4%
btts
Ambas marcam0.0%59.7%77915600549.651.671.681.68-59.7pp-100.0%
WatfordvsStoke
12 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa48.9%41.7%2.052.402.402.40+7.2pp+17.3%
Empate28.6%29.6%3.503.353.403.38-1.1pp-3.5%
Fora22.5%34.5%4.442.952.852.90-11.9pp-34.6%
ou25
Over 2.538.9%52.9%2.571.931.851.89-14.0pp-26.4%
Under 2.561.1%53.9%1.641.881.831.85+7.2pp+13.3%
btts
Ambas marcam39.9%59.2%2.501.701.681.69-19.2pp-32.5%
Sheffield UtdvsWolves
13 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa31.3%32.3%3.203.203.003.10-1.0pp-3.0%
Empate16.9%28.8%5.933.353.603.48-11.9pp-41.5%
Fora51.9%44.2%1.932.272.252.26+7.6pp+17.2%
ou25
Over 2.593.2%57.1%1.071.781.721.75+36.1pp+63.1%
Under 2.56.8%49.6%14.712.051.982.02-42.8pp-86.3%
btts
Ambas marcam87.2%62.5%1.151.601.601.60+24.6pp+39.4%

League One (E2)

0 jogos com odds
Sem dados de mercado disponíveis — volta mais perto dos jogos ou quando a coleta publicar odds.

League Two (E3)

0 jogos com odds
Sem dados de mercado disponíveis — volta mais perto dos jogos ou quando a coleta publicar odds.

Liga Portugal (PT)

10 jogos com odds · recolhidas 13:15 UTC
EstrelavsBraga
10 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa44.1%17.5%2.275.905.505.70+26.5pp+151.2%
Empate16.9%25.8%5.913.853.903.88-8.9pp-34.4%
Fora39.0%62.9%2.561.601.581.59-23.9pp-38.0%
ou25
Over 2.594.1%52.5%1.061.881.931.91+41.6pp+79.2%
Under 2.55.9%54.0%16.851.931.771.85-48.1pp-89.0%
btts
Ambas marcam89.3%52.4%1.121.871.951.91+36.9pp+70.5%
NacionalvsAlverca
12 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa36.6%38.0%2.732.672.602.63-1.3pp-3.5%
Empate40.1%30.8%2.493.253.253.25+9.4pp+30.4%
Fora23.2%37.6%4.302.722.602.66-14.3pp-38.1%
ou25
Over 2.517.6%48.4%5.682.151.982.06-30.8pp-63.6%
Under 2.582.4%58.3%1.211.721.711.72+24.1pp+41.3%
btts
Ambas marcam21.6%55.9%4.631.831.751.79-34.3pp-61.4%
Casa PiavsFC Porto
12 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa10.3%8.9%9.7311.5011.0011.25+1.4pp+15.5%
Empate0.1%18.2%1163.085.505.505.50-18.1pp-99.5%
Fora89.6%78.7%1.121.281.261.27+10.9pp+13.8%
ou25
Over 2.599.3%57.1%1.011.781.721.75+42.2pp+73.8%
Under 2.50.7%49.6%144.322.051.982.02-48.9pp-98.6%
btts
Ambas marcam10.3%41.9%9.732.402.372.38-31.7pp-75.5%
Academico ViseuvsVitoria Guimaraes
12 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa0.0%27.8%3259155.323.803.403.60-27.8pp-100.0%
Empate24.4%29.8%4.103.303.403.35-5.5pp-18.4%
Fora75.6%48.5%1.322.072.052.06+27.1pp+55.8%
ou25
Over 2.541.2%48.8%2.432.102.002.05-7.6pp-15.5%
Under 2.558.8%58.3%1.701.751.681.72+0.5pp+0.8%
btts
Ambas marcam0.0%54.6%3259155.321.831.831.83-54.6pp-100.0%
AroucavsSanta Clara
13 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa80.7%38.0%1.242.672.602.63+42.8pp+112.8%
Empate14.7%31.5%6.793.153.203.17-16.8pp-53.2%
Fora4.5%36.7%22.102.802.652.73-32.2pp-87.7%
ou25
Over 2.548.3%44.0%2.072.302.252.27+4.3pp+9.9%
Under 2.551.7%62.7%1.931.621.571.59-11.0pp-17.6%
btts
Ambas marcam26.6%52.5%3.771.911.901.91-25.9pp-49.4%
BenficavsGil Vicente
13 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa0.0%85.5%1.181.161.17-85.5pp-100.0%
Empate100.0%13.2%1.007.108.007.55+86.8pp+655.0%
Fora0.0%6.7%16.0014.0015.00-6.7pp-100.0%
ou25
Over 2.50.0%66.7%1.531.471.50-66.7pp-100.0%
Under 2.5100.0%40.2%1.002.522.452.48+59.8pp+148.5%
btts
Ambas marcam0.0%41.9%2.372.402.38-41.9pp-100.0%
FamalicaovsSporting CP
13 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa19.3%18.6%5.195.505.255.38+0.7pp+3.6%
Empate20.4%24.8%4.894.054.004.03-4.4pp-17.7%
Fora60.3%62.9%1.661.601.581.59-2.6pp-4.2%
ou25
Over 2.571.6%55.6%1.401.851.751.80+16.0pp+28.8%
Under 2.528.4%50.9%3.521.981.951.97-22.4pp-44.1%
btts
Ambas marcam59.2%54.5%1.691.871.801.83+4.7pp+8.6%
Rio AvevsEstrela
14 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa2.0%36.2%50.362.822.702.76-34.2pp-94.5%
Empate0.5%30.3%199.163.303.303.30-29.8pp-98.3%
Fora97.5%39.8%1.032.572.452.51+57.7pp+144.8%
ou25
Over 2.596.8%49.6%1.032.051.982.02+47.2pp+95.1%
Under 2.53.2%57.0%31.641.781.731.75-53.8pp-94.5%
btts
Ambas marcam2.0%56.7%50.361.781.751.76-54.7pp-96.5%
MoreirensevsMaritimo
14 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa9.8%36.2%10.192.772.752.76-26.4pp-72.9%
Empate12.6%32.0%7.913.153.103.12-19.4pp-60.5%
Fora77.5%38.3%1.292.672.552.61+39.2pp+102.4%
ou25
Over 2.587.1%44.0%1.152.302.252.27+43.1pp+98.1%
Under 2.512.9%62.7%7.741.621.571.59-49.8pp-79.4%
btts
Ambas marcam64.5%52.8%1.551.911.881.90+11.7pp+22.2%
BragavsEstoril
14 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa31.1%66.2%3.221.531.491.51-35.1pp-53.0%
Empate68.9%24.1%1.454.204.104.15+44.8pp+186.0%
Fora0.0%16.1%6.206.256.22-16.1pp-100.0%
ou25
Over 2.50.7%59.2%153.191.721.661.69-58.5pp-98.9%
Under 2.599.4%48.0%1.012.122.052.08+51.4pp+107.1%
btts
Ambas marcam0.0%55.9%2937768837162.751.781.801.79-55.9pp-100.0%

Ligue 1 (FR)

0 jogos com odds
Sem dados de mercado disponíveis — volta mais perto dos jogos ou quando a coleta publicar odds.

Serie A (IT)

0 jogos com odds
Sem dados de mercado disponíveis — volta mais perto dos jogos ou quando a coleta publicar odds.

Bundesliga (DE)

3 jogos com odds · recolhidas 13:15 UTC
RB LeipzigvsHamburger SV
13 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa0.0%72.5%1.381.381.38-72.5pp-100.0%
Empate100.0%19.1%1.005.205.255.22+80.9pp+422.5%
Fora0.0%13.6%7.507.257.38-13.6pp-100.0%
ou25
Over 2.50.0%70.9%1.421.401.41-70.9pp-100.0%
Under 2.5100.0%35.6%1.002.872.752.81+64.4pp+181.0%
btts
Ambas marcam0.0%61.7%1.621.621.62-61.7pp-100.0%
Bayern MunichvsUnion Berlin
18 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa0.0%87.3%1.141.151.15-87.3pp-100.0%
Empate100.0%10.5%1.009.259.759.50+89.5pp+850.0%
Fora0.0%6.5%16.5014.5015.50-6.5pp-100.0%
ou25
Over 2.50.0%83.3%1.211.191.20-83.3pp-100.0%
Under 2.5100.0%22.7%1.004.504.334.42+77.3pp+341.5%
btts
Ambas marcam0.0%57.6%1.751.721.74-57.6pp-100.0%
Bayer LeverkusenvsRB Leipzig
20 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa92.4%51.3%1.081.951.951.95+41.1pp+80.1%
Empate7.6%24.5%13.084.054.104.08-16.9pp-68.9%
Fora0.0%29.6%3.453.303.38-29.6pp-100.0%
ou25
Over 2.547.4%72.7%2.111.391.361.38-25.3pp-34.8%
Under 2.552.6%33.6%1.903.052.902.98+18.9pp+56.4%
btts
Ambas marcam0.0%73.0%12692.441.371.371.37-73.0pp-100.0%

La Liga (ES)

1 jogos com odds · recolhidas 13:15 UTC
Real MadridvsRayo Vallecano
12 Set 2026 · Betano PT + bwin · recolhidas Betano PT 13:15 UTC · bwin 13:15 UTC · ver detalhe →
SelecçãoProb. ModeloProb. Mercado FairBetano PTbwinMédia Δ (gap)EV técnico
1x2
Casa95.5%88.5%1.051.131.131.13+7.0pp+7.9%
Empate3.3%11.0%30.288.509.759.12-7.7pp-69.9%
Fora1.2%4.9%84.5523.0017.5020.25-3.8pp-76.1%
ou25
Over 2.589.0%77.5%1.121.311.271.29+11.5pp+14.9%
Under 2.511.0%28.6%9.133.503.503.50-17.6pp-61.6%
btts
Ambas marcam43.0%49.8%2.322.022.002.01-6.7pp-13.5%